Method and sources

Every number in this app and on this site, where it came from, and what it cannot tell you. Written for the sceptical reader.

This page exists because the audience for this product knows more about fishing than we do, and the only thing we can offer that a forum thread cannot is a chain of reasoning that can be checked.

What the model computes

Given a lure colour, a depth, a water type, a time of day and a target species, it estimates the apparent contrast of that lure against the water, in the species’ own visual channels, and the distance at which it plausibly becomes detectable.

Where the numbers come from

How confident each species is

Most fish have never had their visual pigments measured. Rather than invent a curve — which is what every lure-colour chart quietly does — every species carries a grade, and the grade is on the card, not in a footnote.

What we found while building it

Two things worth reporting, because they changed the model and because nobody has to take our word for either.

First: Jerlov’s 1976 table of attenuation coefficients, taken literally, says clear ocean water is more transparent to red light than pure water is. At 700 nm his type-I value implies less attenuation than Pope & Fry’s measured pure-water absorption permits, which cannot be true. We keep the modern measurement, which makes this app up to 30 % more pessimistic about red penetration than the classic table — the conservative direction for our own headline claim.

Second: the published fixed-point solver for the standard fisheries visual-range equation is not a contraction in the regime that matters here — a big bright lure in clear water — where it oscillates and returns nonsense. We solve the same equation by bisection instead. The two independent range limits (contrast-limited and light-limited) then agree with each other, which is the check that says the formulation is right.

What it deliberately does not model


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